Gambling score in earthquake prediction analysis

EPiC: Earthquake Prediction in California

Earthquake prediction has long been the holy grail for seismologists around the world. The various factors affecting earthquakes are far from being understood, and there exist no known correlations between largescale earthquake activity and periodic geological events. Nonetheless, we hope that machine learning will give us greater insight into the patterns underlying earthquake activity, even i...

On Earthquake Prediction in Japan

Japan's National Project for Earthquake Prediction has been conducted since 1965 without success. An earthquake prediction should be a short-term prediction based on observable physical phenomena or precursors. The main reason of no success is the failure to capture precursors. Most of the financial resources and manpower of the National Project have been devoted to strengthening the seismograp...

Rethinking Earthquake Prediction

We re-examine and summarize what is now possible in predicting earthquakes, what might be accomplished (and hence might be possible in the next few decades) and what types of predictions appear to be inherently impossible based on our understanding of earthquakes as complex phenomena. We take predictions to involve a variety of time scales from seconds to a few decades. Earthquake warnings and ...

Computational Geodynamics for Seismic Hazard Analysis and Earthquake Prediction

Short-term earthquake prediction by reverse analysis of lithosphere dynamics

Short-term earthquake prediction, months in advance, is an elusive goal of earth sciences, of great importance for fundamental science and for disaster preparedness. Here, we describe a methodology for short-term prediction named RTP (Reverse Tracing of Precursors). Using this methodology the San Simeon earthquake in Central California (magnitude 6.5, Dec. 22, 2003) and the Tokachi-Oki earthqua...